Doha: Global oil prices extended their losses for a third consecutive session on Thursday as investors reacted to signs of progress in indirect talks between the United States and Iran, easing concerns about potential disruptions to crude shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
According to Beyond Time News, the discussions, hosted by Qatar, resulted in what officials described as “positive progress” on issues linked to the memorandum that helped halt hostilities in June. While the negotiations did not produce a permanent peace agreement, they reduced immediate fears of supply interruptions in one of the world’s busiest energy corridors.
Crude Prices Continue to Slide
International benchmark Brent crude fell 77 cents, or about 1.1%, to $70.80 per barrel during early trading.
At the same time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 84 cents, or roughly 1.2%, to $67.74 per barrel.
The latest decline followed losses of more than one percent in the previous trading session, leaving both major benchmarks at their lowest levels in approximately four months.
Market analysts attributed the downward trend to improving expectations for uninterrupted oil supplies and growing concerns about excess production.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Central to Market Sentiment
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime trade routes, serving as a gateway for around one-fifth of global oil shipments before the recent regional conflict.
According to Beyond Time News, the continued movement of oil tankers through the waterway has reassured energy markets that exports remain largely unaffected.
With shipping routes remaining open, traders are increasingly focusing on the possibility of higher global supplies rather than supply shortages, putting additional pressure on oil prices.
OPEC+ Expected to Increase Production
Another factor weighing on crude prices is the expectation that OPEC+ producers will approve another increase in oil production when the alliance meets this weekend.
Industry observers believe higher production targets could further boost global supplies at a time when demand growth remains uncertain.
If additional output is approved, it could intensify competition among major oil-exporting countries and place further downward pressure on international crude prices.
UBS Lowers Brent Oil Forecast
Global financial institution UBS has revised its oil price outlook following the recent diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran.
The bank lowered its average Brent crude forecast for the September quarter by $25 per barrel and reduced its December quarter projection by $10 per barrel.
UBS now expects Brent crude to average around $80 per barrel during the second half of 2026 and approximately $75 per barrel in 2027.
Despite lowering its forecasts, the bank cautioned that risks remain.
Analysts pointed out that the number of oil tankers entering the Persian Gulf continues to lag behind the number leaving the region, suggesting that supply conditions have not fully normalized.
Diplomatic Talks to Continue
Qatari officials said another round of indirect negotiations between Iranian and US representatives is expected after funeral ceremonies for Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, scheduled for July 9.
Although the latest discussions were described as constructive, officials did not indicate that a long-term political settlement had been reached.
Continued diplomatic engagement will remain important for reducing geopolitical tensions that have influenced global energy markets in recent months.
Why Oil Prices Matter
Changes in international oil prices affect economies worldwide.
Lower crude prices can reduce fuel costs for consumers, ease inflationary pressures, and lower transportation and manufacturing expenses. Countries that rely heavily on imported oil may also benefit from reduced import bills and improved trade balances.
For major oil-exporting nations, however, prolonged price declines can reduce government revenues, impact fiscal planning, and affect investment in the energy sector.
Financial markets closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East because even small disruptions to oil supply routes can trigger sharp price movements.
Outlook for Energy Markets
Oil traders are expected to watch several developments in the coming days, including the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, progress in US-Iran diplomacy, and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
If diplomatic efforts continue to reduce regional tensions while oil production increases, prices may remain under pressure. However, any renewed instability or disruption to energy infrastructure could quickly reverse the current trend.
For now, improved supply expectations and easing geopolitical concerns remain the primary drivers behind the recent decline in global crude oil prices.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices fall?
Oil prices declined after indirect US-Iran talks showed positive progress, reducing concerns about disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
How much did Brent and WTI crude fall?
Brent crude dropped to $70.80 per barrel, while US WTI crude fell to $67.74 per barrel during early trading.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
The Strait of Hormuz is a major global shipping route through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, making it vital to international energy markets.
What is expected from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting?
Market participants expect OPEC+ to approve another increase in oil production, which could further expand global supply.
When will the next US-Iran talks take place?
According to Qatari officials, the next round of indirect negotiations is expected after the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s late Supreme Leader on July 9.
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